Will PP spunbond nonwoven raw materials continue to rise from October to December 2026?

From October to December 2026, PP spunbond non-woven fabric raw materials will not continue to rise unilaterally, and the overall trend will show a "strong oscillation at a high level in October, gradually shifting the focus downwards after November, and a weak ending at the end of the year". There is no basis for a sustained upward trend.

1.October market trend: Strong oscillation at high levels, no sustained upward momentum

• Cost side support still exists: the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has not fully eased, international oil prices remain in the range of 90-100 US dollars per barrel, PP fiber material costs are stable at the bottom, spot prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the mainstream operating range is between 9800-10300 yuan/ton.
• Supply side increment gradually released: PP units that underwent early maintenance in mid to late October resumed production, and PetroChina Tarim Petrochemical's 450000 tons/year new unit gradually increased production. The previous pattern of structural shortage of standard product sources will be significantly alleviated, and the elasticity of further price increases will be greatly compressed.
• Difficulty in increasing demand on the demand side: High priced raw materials suppress the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, and the main demand is for replenishment, which cannot support the continuous rise of raw material prices and makes it difficult to increase transaction volume.

2.Market in November and December: The focus gradually shifts downwards, and the end of the year ends weakly

• Marginal weakening of cost support: If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East temporarily eases, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil will dissipate, and the oil price center will fall back to the range of 80-85 US dollars per barrel, the core support for PP raw material costs will be significantly loosened.
• Concentrated release of supply pressure: In the fourth quarter, a total of 4.15 million tons of PP new production capacity was put into operation domestically, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. Coupled with the return of low-priced overseas sources, the supply and demand pattern turned loose, and raw material prices will gradually return to fundamentals.
• At the end of the year, the pressure on enterprises to recoup funds has increased, and the willingness of petrochemical plants to voluntarily offer discounts for shipments has strengthened. The price of fiber materials will fluctuate and fall, and the mainstream price center is expected to fall back to the range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton by the end of the year.

3.The only exception to the upward trend scenario

• If the unexpected escalation of the Iran conflict affects shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, there may be a temporary surge in raw material prices. However, the probability of such an extreme scenario occurring is only about 15%, which is not a benchmark market judgment.

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